Less than one month from now (Aug. 13), the NFL preseason will officially kick off. The new official league year has already begun, the complete schedule is released, the draft is over and free agency has settled down.
Training camp is about to start and immediately we will start getting a lot of buzz from reporters about which players looks good, where contract issues remain unsolved, what injuries look healed or continue to linger and much more. There ultimately will be a wave of betting action on incoming news that the market races to price in.
My goal is to get to the window a little early and place a few regular season win total bets before all of that news hits.
Here are the three bets I placed this past weekend, which I recommend taking right now:
Chicago Bears under 9.5 wins (-125)
The Bears have a brutally difficult schedule this season.
After winning the NFC North last year, they now draw a first-place schedule of opponents, while also playing in perhaps the hardest division in the league. Adjusting strength of schedule to projected win totals for this upcoming year, the Bears have the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL. This comes on the heels of the polar opposite situation last year where Chicago had one of the easiest preseason projected schedules, a key reason it overachieved.
Beyond the forecasted schedule, Chicago’s defense thrived last season due to forced turnovers. The Bears led the NFL in turnovers forced (33), and had the largest net turnover differential at +22. Year over year, turnovers in the NFL are analytically shown to be one of the least “sticky” stats, meaning there is a significant luck factor. The NFL being described as a “game of inches” is telling, and the Bears dominating possessions again comes with likely regression to the mean.
Lastly, while Chicago’s focal skill position players are young, the average age of the team actually ranks 10th oldest coming into this season. People point to Caleb Williams, Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze and think this is a team of players in their first few years in the NFL, but the glue guys are rather old. This reminds me of the Washington Commanders last year, with Jayden Daniels at the helm but a roster full of aging veterans who got hurt and significantly regressed.
The Chicago Bears are the first full fade for me, betting under 9.5 wins.
Denver Broncos over 9.5 wins (-125)
Strength of schedule is often the biggest handicap behind betting early NFL win totals. It is the most known variable and has proven over recent years to bear a significant edge in both market movement and results. However, betting markets adjust fast and the projected strength of schedule is weighted into these lines.
The Broncos have the 11th-easiest schedule, which is close to league average and nothing overly worth reading into. The main reason I like Denver over is elite coaching and depth within the roster construction.
We saw how much the Broncos missed Bo Nix in the AFC Championship Game, but Jarred Stidham is still a capable backup — and this isn’t just a quarterback thing for the Broncos. The running volume is pretty evenly split between J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. The passing game targets will project a pretty neutral split between Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and newcomer Jaylen Waddle. They even have a pass-catching tight end in Evan Engram, showing their passing attack could function through a variety of options.
Depth provides a stable floor to their win total, where an injury at various levels would not decimate the projected output. That is a safe bet to take an early over on.
Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins (-145)
The Bills promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to their head coach position, and while he is a young first-time head coach, he surrounded himself with a staff with tons of experience.
We have seen first-time coaches perform extremely well in previous regular seasons, and it’s often the ones with a strong offensive background. Brady led the Bills to a NFL’s top rushing attack last season, and the team added DJ Moore as a top wideout to pair with Josh Allen to bolster the passing attack. The divisional opponents are incredibly weak, and the Bills haven’t fallen below 11 wins since Josh Allen’s rookie year in 2018, racking up six straight years above this mark. Buffalo’s schedule also ranks 14th easiest, right around league average and more favorable than years past.
I also like the Bills -125 to win their division, and I like Joe Brady to win Coach of the Year at 11-1.
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