Golf 101 — and noted golf statistician Justin Ray — says the winner of a tournament will more than likely be at or near the top of the leaderboard heading into the final round. That may not be true at the 154th Open Championship.
Through three rounds, the lowest scores have come from those teeing off early in the day. Lucas Herbert, Sam Burns and Ryan Fox have each carded 8-under 62s. They all teed off in the morning wave, when the winds at Royal Birkdale hadn’t yet whipped up, making for benign conditions ideal for low scoring.
By the time the afternoon wave has hit the course, winds have picked up, making scoring a bit tougher.
And so …
When Herbert started his round Friday, he trailed by five. When the day ended, he led by two.
Burns was eight back when he teed off Friday. He was three back when the day ended.
And when Fox teed off Saturday morning, he was eight shots back of Herbert. He’ll go out Sunday one shot ahead of Herbert and just two behind Burns, who’s used Friday’s record-tying round to completely flip the script.
Sunday’s forecast calls for … little wind in the morning, with gusts picking up in the afternoon, right when the leaders will be teeing off, same as the last two days
What this means is, maybe the best bet heading into Sunday’s final round isn’t necessarily a player at the top of the leaderboard — Burns (-10), Si Woo Kim (-8) or Fox (-8) — but rather one who is close enough to the lead but also has an early tee time.
What’s close enough?
Per DataGolf, the winning score will be somewhere between -10 to -13, with -11 carrying the highest probability. If 8-under 62 is the lowest score out there — and no one at a major has ever gone lower, yet we’ve already seen it done three times this week — then anyone -3 or better entering Sunday’s final round is in the mix.
Who does that bring into play?
Well, let’s start with Rory McIlroy, who is actually at -2 and will have an early tee time when conditions are ripe for birdies. No one would be surprised if McIlroy, king of the backdoor top 10 at majors, lays down a number early. But it would likely take another 62.
Those at -3 would seem to be in the “ideal” position for the backdoor victory — close enough to get to -11, but also with an early enough tee time to take advantage of the expected benign conditions. That group includes Justin Thomas and Robert MacIntyre, both of whom are capable of going on a heater.
It’s at -4 where things get interesting. That’s where Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler sit. Schauffele already has a pair of 62s at majors on his resume, so we know he’s capable. Rahm shot a 63 at the 2023 Open. And if Scheffler can get his putter going, anything is possible with him. He is, after all, the No. 1 player in the world.
“I don’t think in an Open Championship on a course like this where you see low scores, high scores … I feel like anyone inside the top 20 will surely feel like if they have the round of their lives they feel like they can win The Open tomorrow,” said Shane Lowry, who sits at -4.
But will conditions have changed by the time Scheffler (12:45), Rahn (12:55), Lowry (12:55) and Schauffele (1:30) tee off?
On Friday, Herbert and Burns teed off at 9:03 and 9:25 a.m. local time, respectively, ahead of their 62s. Fox teed off at 10:30 a.m. Saturday. Sunday’s forecast calls for winds to really pick up around 2-3 p.m. local time, which puts 9-11:30 a.m. tee times inside the ideal scoring window.
Who tees off at 11:30?
Rory McIlroy.
“Never say never,” McIlroy said when asked if he still thinks he has a chance. “I think that was the fourth 62 of the week — or third — yeah, whatever. There’s been a few of them. If I go out tomorrow and get to double digits, you never know, but yeah, I certainly am not going out tomorrow thinking like I’ve got a great chance to win.”
All of this is moot if Burns continues to play the way he has the last two days — 62-65. But it should be noted, the 73 he shot on Thursday came when he went out at 2:31 p.m. local time. He’ll go out at 2:20 on Sunday.
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