Since their last division title in 2014, there is no more ho-hum team in the NFL than the Indianapolis Colts. That’s 11 seasons, and the Colts have 7-9 wins in a season seven times. They have claimed two Wild Card berths, but only one postseason win. In the last five years, Indianapolis has gone 8-9 or 9-8 four times. The 2016 team went 8-8 without ever winning games in back-to-back weeks. The 2018 team started 1-5 but finished 10-6; the 2025 team started 8-2 but finished 8-9. They’ve had eight Week 1 quarterbacks in 11 years, no one more than twice in a row. It goes deeper: They are 15th in points scored in those 11 years, 18th in point differential. And here’s the big one: In those 11 years, 25 teams have at least one division title. 25 teams have a last-place finish. Nineteen teams have both. The Colts? Zero first places in the last 11 years, zero last places in the last places. They’re the only team to have a whole run of seconds and thirds in that stretch. With the Texans and Jaguars both competitive right now, and the Titans in the midst of a rebuild, the Colts might be the most obvious “going to have a second- or third-place finish” team in the league again this year. Can they break the stretch, for good or for bad?
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions:
Sleeper: Josh Downs, WR
In the “Alec Pierce is a breakout!”/”Michael Pittman Jr. is the casualty of paying Pierce!” conversations this offseason, Downs kind of got lost in the shuffle. And to be fair, his entire career has kind of been lost-in-the-shuffle-y — he has averaged almost 100 targets a year over his three seasons, with 713 yards and 3.7 touchdowns a season, but nobody has ever really cared. In 2026, though, Pittman is gone. Pierce is still around on a nice new contract, but then he’s also recovering from offseason ankle surgery and could miss the start of training camp (and longer?). So as of right now, the Colts have a receiver room of a recovering Pierce, Downs and then … Nick Westbrook-Ikhine? Ashton Dulin? Yes, Tyler Warren will command a load of targets at tight end, but there’s going to be a hundred-plus target wide receiver in Indianapolis, and if you were placing a bet, you would have to put it on Downs. Getting 100 targets at WR44 in drafts is appealing.
Busts: Jonathan Taylor, RB
Christian McCaffrey’s touch load from last year gets all the publicity, and rightly so, as his 413 touches in the regular season last year were the most since DeMarco Murray’s 449 in 2014 (and McCaffrey added another 37 postseason touches). But Taylor had 369 touches in his own right last year, and that’s also, you know, a whole whole lot. In the last 10 years, 20 players have had at least 350 touches in a season. Taking out the three 2025 examples (McCaffrey, Taylor, Bijan Robinson) and Le’Veon Bell’s 2017 (when he held out the next year), that’s 16 players and an average of 371.5 touches. Those 16 guys averaged 261.1 touches the year after, with only 2024-2025 Robinson and 2018-2019 Ezekiel Elliott getting there in consecutive years. For several years now, the Colts have had one of the best offensive lines in football. It is still a strong group (fifth in our offensive line rankings), but the unit is riskier than it has been in recent years. And of course, Daniel Jones’ health is going to be one of the top storylines in football heading into the season. There’s a very real possibility the Colts have one of the league’s worst QB situations (whether a hobbled Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson Sr. or Riley Leonard), and that is a bad situation for Taylor, who averaged 23.8 PPR points per game with Jones last year compared to 13.3 with Leonard/Philip Rivers, per the FTN Fantasy NFL Splits Tool. There’s still plenty of chances for Taylor to be a top-10 fantasy back in 2026, especially with nothing of note behind him on the depth chart. But he’s the RB4 in early ADP, the ninth overall pick, and that’s too high a price to pay for a guy with his downside risk.
Bold Prediction: Anthony Richardson Sr. Gets Traded to the Jets, Cowboys or Lions
The Colts are done with Richardson, for better or worse. The team likes Riley Leonard and will enter the season with him as the QB2, unless Jones is not ready and Leonard has to start. For now, Richardson is slated to be the QB3 with a shot at the backup role if Jones needs extra time. But once Jones and Leonard are both available, I fully expect the team to cut bait on the former fourth overall pick. But the team doesn’t need to cut him and let teams sweep in and get him for free. Even if it’s a sixth- or seventh-round pick, the team would be wise to get something for Richardson. So the question is who might be the team. And by my reckoning, there are three candidates:
- The Cowboys have a history of bringing in toolsy QBs as backups, a la Trey Lance and Joe Milton III. Dak Prescott has at least two more years on his contract, but that’s been true when Lance and Milton were brought in too.
- The Jets have no future at quarterback. Geno Smith might bounce back for 2026, but even if he does, that’s a short-term answer. And if he looks like he did in Las Vegas last year, there’s no answer for the team. A Week 2-3 Richardson trade would at least give them an option.
- The Lions only have Teddy Bridgewater and Luke Altmyer behind Jared Goff, and they had a dalliance with Hendon Hooker a few years ago that shows the toolsiness is appealing to them.
It might happen before the season. It might happen in Week 2 or 3. It might happen at the trade deadline. But Richardson is likely to be on the move this season, and those teams make the most sense.
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