In looking at Dom Luszczyszyn’s article about which teams improved the most, the Penguins only ranked 28th for offseason changes with a net rating on that model of -10. A line of the analysis stood out.
It just doesn’t do enough to make up for what they’ve lost. I’m worried about their goaltending situation without Stuart Skinner, and Anthony Mantha was a legit top-six forward. Without those two, there’s a decent chance of a step back this season.
The goalie aspect is an interesting one, since it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom around the situation. Goaltending is the only position where the Penguins’ youth movement is truly getting going in the net these days now that Tristan Jarry is long gone and no efforts were made to re-sign Stuart Skinner. That leaves three goalies 25 years old and younger between Arturs Silovs, Sergei Murashov and Joel Blomqvist within the organization for what will be one of the youngest tandems the team has had in a long time. Other positions have received some efforts to inject young pieces here and there, but overall only it’s in net that the Penguins really turning in a tangible direction to get young.
That youth movement is mostly seen as refreshing, exciting and an opportunity to improve. Neither Jarry nor Skinner are consistent, above average starting goalies these days. Both have had their moments, some good and some not so good with an ceiling in their play that isn’t sky high. Murashov, 22, was named the AHL’s top prospect at his position after a wonderful rookie season in 2025-26 and carries a lot of promise with his skillset and potential. Understandably, the prospects of a new guard bring hope that a higher caliber of player will be on the other side.
Under the surface, however, Luszczyszyn makes a point worth considering. Stuart Skinner posted a +5.35 GSAx with the Pens from hockeystats.com in 27 games, indicating he kept more pucks out of the net than expected. For that matter, with his hot start in 2025-26 while with Pittsburgh Tristan Jarry was at +7.6 GSAx in just 14 games, showing the contributions by the veterans ended up making a difference in a cumulative half season of work. (Jarry’s issue, of course, is maintaining his peaks – but that wasn’t a problem that popped up in what the 2025-26 Penguins’ season had).
Combine the Jarry/Skinner contributions from last year and it makes for a 21-12-6 record in the Pittsburgh portions of their respective seasons, a full season pace of 101 points. The duo wasn’t exceedingly strong in all statistical outlooks- they combined for a .894 save% and had a GAA of 2.88 – which also incorporates the difficulties of playing behind a team defense that conceded among the worst shot and chances allowed. The Pens helped their goalies out by scoring 290 goals (third most in the league) but they did very few favors in their own end due to leaning towards offense and their own individual defensive shortcomings.
It could also be noted that the team didn’t make any measurable improvements in the offseason. Their are some changes (Parker Wotherspoon, Ryan Shea and Connor Clifton leaving the blueline, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Declan Carlile and Kaeden Korzcak coming in) which at this point doesn’t look like a massive upgrade on paper in terms of immediately impacting team defensive performance. The team will also deal with losing a key penalty killer in Noel Acciari, which could be a critical loss given his importance to the 6th ranked PK group.
Those factors will make the goalie situation in 2026-27 a challenge for the Pens. An untested NHL rookie in Murashov would have to stop almost 13 goals beyond expectation and get enough results within the games to carry a 100-point pace just to match the half-season of work from Jarry+Skinner. Only 14 goalies in the league posted a +13 GSAx last year, even putting Murashov in that territory is too unreasonable of an ask.
That’s where Silovs comes into the picture. The team will need a big step forward from their now most experienced goalie (who himself only has 58 NHL games under his belt) to help pick up the slack. Silovs, unlike the veteran goalies last year, struggled in the GSAx outlook with a -5.7 figure that ranked 75th out of 89 NHL goalies last season. For Jarry/Skinner/Silovs, the three goalies had a total of a +7.25 GSAx, which would be the combined number that Silovs+Murashov would need to track towards next season to give comparable overall performance. That’s only likely to happen if Silovs goes from the GSAx liability he was last year into a positive contributor in that department moving forward.
The importance of Silovs’ performance is heightened now that he figures to slide from being the 1B goalie of last year into more of a 1A option for the team while they break in a less experienced netminder. The Pens no longer have a veteran ‘safety net’ to go back to, they have decided to cast their lot with new options.
Goaltending performance is always tantamount for team outcomes, and the wild variability makes it a guessing game to project just how a Silovs/Murashov tandem will hold up next season. However, for all the understandable optimism and excitement to move onto the next chapter, it’s worth remembering that the Pens are putting an unknown in place of what ended up being some solid contributions last year from what they got out of the Jarry/Skinner inputs and that could spell a little more difficulty in moving onto the next chapter than might be perceived from the individual reputations involved.
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