Why beating Mexico would be England’s greatest World Cup knockout win for 60 years originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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If England beat Mexico at the Azteca on Sunday, it will be the country’s greatest knockout stage win at a World Cup for 60 years.
That might sound cripplingly insecure from an English writer, more than a little defeatist, or just plain stupid. But it’s an inarguable fact.
This is not an attempt to make the current Mexico side out to be titans of global soccer. They’re not, even though they have several factors that fall in their favor this weekend.
It’s more the enduring, sapping fact that England — despite being the birthplace of the game more than a century and a half ago and despite boasting the richest, strongest and most glamorous domestic league in the world — do not tend to win these sorts of games. Historically, they don’t even play in many of them.
Let’s examine the evidence.
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England’s knockout stage record at the World Cup
In 1966, England experienced what El Tri are currently enjoying: having the wind of a supportive sporting public at your back in tournament play on home soil. They won the World Cup, beating some of the best the world had to offer 60 years ago.
But we’ll come back to this. Right now, we’re talking about England’s World Cup knockout record since.
The fallow decades
We can take out a third of the intervening period because, after Bobby Moore hoisted the Jules Rimet trophy at Wembley, the Three Lions did not win a World Cup match outside of the round-robin stage until 1986 — 20 years between glory and their next knockout win.
In 1970, England emerged from their group second behind Pele’s Brazil and lost a thriller to West Germany, who came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in extra time and gain a measure of revenge for their final loss four years earlier. Yes, this whole sorry tale started in Mexico.
England failed to qualify in 1974 and 1978 before returning in Spain in 1982. There’s a slight asterisk here, given that the tournament format had a first and second group stage. We should also note Ron Greenwood’s side opened with a superb 3-1 win over the great France of Michel Platini. They won three out of three in the first group, but consecutive 0-0 draws with West Germany and Spain in the second round robin meant England headed home unbeaten but without playing a knockout match.
Glorious failure
A far less impressive group stage in 1986 set up two games at Sunday’s venue, Estadio Azteca. England beat Paraguay 3-1, with Gary Lineker’s brace helping him towards the Golden Boot. Lineker scored against Argentina in the quarterfinals, but by that point, Diego Maradona had scored one with his hand and one of the greatest goals in soccer history.
In Italy in 1990, England embarked on an actual knockout run. It wasn’t often pretty as they needed extra time to beat Belgium and Cameroon. They played far better in the 1-1 semifinal draw against West Germany, where a penalty shootout loss set up that great English tournament staple: the glorious failure. There have been more of those than high-level knockout wins in recent history.
After failing to qualify for USA ’94, another came at France ’98. England and Argentina played out a scintillating first half in Saint-Etienne, which ended 2-2. Then David Beckham tangled with Diego Simeone and was sent off. England battled gamely with 10 men, reached penalties, and lost.
That narrative was replayed against Portugal in 2006, with Wayne Rooney the guilty party to cause numerical disadvantage. England played bravely but lost on penalties. Add it to the pile. That was Sven-Goran Eriksson’s final match in charge. A 1-0 win over Argentina at the 2002 World Cup came in the group stage. He had knockout wins over Denmark and Ecuador, losing to Brazil after the former. Not formalities, but nothing that wasn’t expected of the so-called ‘Golden Generation’.
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Southgate, you’re the one
Any remaining shine came off in 2010 when Fabio Capello’s ramshackle England were hammered 4-1 by Germany in the first knockout round. Sure, Frank Lampard’s goal that wasn’t, but they would have lost anyway. They were nowhere near the level, much like Roy Hodgson’s 2014 vintage that crashed out at the group stage.
Against all that weight of failure, Gareth Southgate taking an unfancied squad to the semifinals in Russia felt close to magical. They even won on penalties against Colombia before beating Sweden and losing in the semis to Croatia.
In 2022, there was penalty heartache without the shootout when Harry Kane blazed over late on in a 2-1 defeat to an excellent France side in the quarterfinals. England played really well, as they did when unfussily dispatching Senegal in the previous round.
Why Mexico would be England’s best World Cup win for 60 years
That’s the whole underwhelming tale. Paraguay, Belgium. Cameroon, Denmark, Ecuador. Sweden, Senegal, and, as of this week, DR Congo. Beating an on-form Mexico at their footballing temple, where they’ve only lost two of 87 matches, in front of a braying crowd at sapping altitude… if England win there, it tops any win since 1966, and quite easily.
To lift the trophy, Alf Ramsey wheeled out his pioneering 4-1-3-2 formation to battle past Argentina 1-0 in the quarters. Eusebio’s Portugal were then beaten 2-1 before the 4-2 extra-time win over Germany on English football’s day of days. It’s a phenomenal body of work, but one that took place at Wembley with a Geoff Hurst goal in the final and a red card for Argentina captain Antonio Rattin two rounds earlier, which are disputed to this day.
The hometown cards will fall Mexico’s way on Sunday. It is a game that England should win, where Thomas Tuchel must show his chops as an elite knockout-stage coach in tough conditions. If you lay out the two teams side by side, only Julian Quinones would get into a combined XI on current form, and no one would have said as much before the tournament started.
If England beat Mexico, they would have to ensure it does not remain their best World Cup knockout win, with a potential route to the final featuring Brazil, followed by Argentina, those sort of teams they fail gloriously against. England are that curious thing of a footballing heavyweight without significant knockout blows. In boxing-mad Mexico this weekend, it’s high time they started landing some punches.
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