Russia lost ground for a second straight month in June. CSIS says it has lost the initiative too

Russian forces fell back in June.

Yes, the Russians drove deep into the city of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, their biggest gain of the year. Russian forces are “beginning to take control of several districts in eastern Kostiantynivka, expelling Ukrainian forces from some strongholds,” mapper and analyst Clément Molin wrote. “We are nearing the end of the battle for the city, the fall of which could be staggered until mid-summer. This is Russia’s first strategic victory of the year.” Ukrainian troops still hold parts of the city, and Molin cautioned that Russian flag-raising should not be read as control—but the battle is going Russia’s way.

And in other key sectors south and north of Kostiantynivka, the Russians lost ground. Russia advanced into some 30 sq km across the front in June, ISW calculated—but once Ukrainian counterattacks are subtracted, the month came out negative. Russian forces ended June with a net loss of around 40 sq km of Ukrainian soil, according to analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. It was the second straight month Russia netted negative, the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState noted—the gains eaten by what Ukraine took back.

The reasons are myriad. Ukrainian drones are better and more numerous than ever. Ukrainian fortifications are deeper and denser than ever. And Ukrainian forces are hitting Russian logistics in the middle zone between the disputed gray zone and Russia proper with greater intensity than ever, weakening Russian regiments before they can even organize an assault.

The Ukrainian advantages now outweigh the Russian advantages in traditional firepower and, most notably, manpower. Russian troops have outnumbered Ukrainian troops by as much as 8:1 in the Pokrovsk sector, Zelenskyy has said. Yet Ukraine is inflicting far heavier losses than it takes: Russian casualties are running roughly eight times Ukrainian ones, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Russia has lost the military initiative in Ukraine as costs continue to mount,” the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded.

The trend line is uneven. Depending on which source you trust, the Russians managed to gain a small amount of territory in May: around 28 sq km, Molin assessed.

But most sources agree the Russians lost ground in April and March after registering a modest overall advance in February. Russia has probably fallen back in three of the last five months.

Zooming in

Narrowing the frame changes the outlook. “Russian forces took control of some neighborhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk,” 34 km north of Kostiantynivka, Molin noted. But “this initial victory—achieved in the summer—does not appear to offer any prospect of a second victory within the year,” he added.

That’s because it takes maximal effort over many months by the 700,000-strong Russian army of occupation to achieve a single meaningful gain.

Having ground into the ruins of some small city at the cost of potentially tens of thousands of lives, the Russians are exhausted in victory. And they sit in the ruins of Pokrovsk or Myrnohrad or Kostiantynivka eyeing tens of kilometers of mined, fortified, drone-patrolled open terrain stretching between them and the next major objective.

In the case of the Russian survivors in the east, the objective is the free twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. There are two approaches: one from the south through Kostiantynivka. Another from the east through Lyman, 14 km northeast of Sloviansk.

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If the Russians in Kostiantynivka are spent, could the Russians laying siege to Lyman break through and march on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk?

Probably not. Sensing weakness along the flanks of the Russian force just north of Lyman, Ukrainian forces counterattacked this spring. The counterattacks are “preventing Russian forces from establishing staging positions for attacks against Ukrainian [supply lines] between Lyman and Sloviansk,” Muzyka wrote, “and thereby disrupting efforts to envelop the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north.”

Meanwhile in the southeast, counterattacking Ukrainian forces have stabilized the front line after a period of rapid Russian advances last year.

The Russians aim to capture Zaporizhzhia city, 69 km west of the southeastern front line, but “it is evident they have failed to maintain the same rate of progress seen in the latter half of 2025,” Molin observed. “Frequent and precise Ukrainian drone strikes on access roads are complicating their logistics.”

The war is freezing in place. But that doesn’t mean it’s ending. “Russia continues to fight—a decision that rests firmly with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who has given no public indication he intends to slow down,” CSIS warned.

Likewise, “Ukraine also shows no sign of collapsing.”

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