New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: Gerrit Cole vs. Mike Paredes

Here’s a good test of whether or not the sky is falling on the New York Yankees: Can they beat the Twins in a series? If yes, they’ll probably be fine.

That likely comes across as a bit mean-spirited, but you all know just how one-sided the head-to-head matchups have been. Since the turn of the century, the Yankees have gone 21-2-3 against the Twins in regular season series. Their most recent blip was a 3-4 overall record in 2023, a year in which the sky basically did fall in the Bronx. Aside from that, you have to go back to 2005-06, when they tied each other, to find the previous years in which the Yankees didn’t claim the season series. That’s not even getting into the six playoff series victories New York has enjoyed over that span. From 2002 onward, including postseason, the Yankees are a staggering 127-46 against the Twins — a .734 winning percentage that would top even the 1927 and 1998 Yankees.

So, if there was ever going to be a slumpbuster for this Yankees team, this home series against the Twins—following one of the more necessary offdays in recent memory—would be it. Minnesota is a pesky team this year, overperforming expectations with a 42-46 record roughly a calendar year after a nearly-unprecedented Trade Deadline teardown. They’ve played well entering this series, bouncing back from a sweep against the Dodgers with consecutive series wins over Colorado and Houston.

Gerrit Cole has been searching for consistency through seven starts this season. His last two efforts have seen opposing lineups jump on him for nine runs on sixteen hits. He’s throwing strikes, but not sufficiently high-quality strikes; the Tigers and Red Sox made him pay dearly. The Twins lack any household names in their lineup beyond the slugging threat Byron Buxton, but their 104 team wRC+ is 104, good for a top-10 placement in MLB. It’s another offense Cole can’t afford to give too many quality offerings. With the news that Carlos Rodón is returning to the injured list with elbow inflammation, getting quality starts from Cole just became more important.

While it hurts to see Rodón hit the shelf again, the Bombers’ offense, which has been dead-in-the-water of late, gets a few reinforcements. Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon return from their stays on the IL and are ready to go. Grisham was in a groove to start June, posting a .981 OPS in nine games before the ill-timed hamstring strain. McMahon was decidedly less productive in the leadup to his injury, but his defense should be a boon for New York—Amed Rosario has had his share of screwups at the position.

Minnesota’s offense is decidedly ahead of schedule, but their pitching staff is still searching for consistency from a bevy of young players. One of those young guys is Mike Paredes, a right-hander who the Twins called up to make his MLB debut when starter Bailey Ober hit the IL at the end of May. He’s pitched to a 4.26 ERA in six games, most recently taking the loss against Colorado on 5.1 innings of three-run ball. The San Diego State product’s 5.44 FIP suggests he’s been dancing through the raindrops a bit.

Grisham returns to the leadoff spot ahead of Ben Rice, while Jasson Domínguez will hit third ahead of Cody Bellinger. Paul Goldschmidt cleans up, then it’s Jazz Chisholm Jr. and McMahon hitting as back-to-back lefties. José Caballero will play short and Austin Wells will catch.

How to watch

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

First pitch: 7:05 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, TwinsTV

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | TIBN, WCCO 830, The Wolf 102.9 FM (MIN)

Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.TV (out-of-market only)

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