Once a week we do the upgrade/downgrade game, helping you manage your fantasy baseball roster and scout your strengths and weaknesses. If you have respectful disagreement to offer, I’m all ears — catch me on the socials.
Upgrade
Logan Webb, SP, Giants: He wasn’t right in the spring and a knee injury cost him three weeks, but Webb has been back to ace status since his return: 0.85 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, five strikeouts for every walk. Webb will occasionally have a BABIP-messy start because his strikeout rate isn’t elite, but he collects ground balls by the bushel and is very hard to homer off. The big San Francisco park has always been a plus, too.
Hunter Goodman, C , Rockies: Even with Cal Raleigh falling off significantly, it’s been a solid year for what’s often a thin fantasy position. Goodman’s average and OBP have fallen some from his breakout last year, but with 25 homers in 78 games, no one is going to complain. Colorado has a full homestand this week, which is the ideal time for Goodman to start fixing his strange home/road splits — his OPS is somehow 321 points higher on the road. Still, in the end, gravity always wins.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros: It feels like Houston is ready to take off, getting a handful of stars back to go with MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Peña is quietly back to All-Star status, rocking a .330 average for the past month, with four homers and six steals. Peña had shown improvement and maturation as a hitter — note his bump in the pull stats — and an age-28 season is often a career best. Enjoy the ride.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Reds: Call him a survivor. Abbott’s ERA is ahead of his estimator-suggested number for the fourth straight year, though it’s helped that his ground-ball rate is higher this year. Many managers cut him in late April after a handful of rocky starts, but Abbott’s righted the ship, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight turns (2.64 ERA). Even if that’s over his skis for future projection, Abbott has earned the right to be set-and-forget in medium and deeper leagues.
Trevor Larnach, OF, Twins: Sure, he’s a platoon guy, but we live in a world of right-handed pitching, so Larnach can still help in a mixed league. He’s rocking a .309/.401./463 slash in the platoon advantage, numbers that play in any format. The plate-discipline starts are all above code, and Minnesota faces four straight righties to face the week — go time for Larnach. Work the schedule.
Keider Montero, SP, Tigers: On a staff with name pitchers everywhere — Skubal, Valdez, even Mize and Flaherty — no one expected Montero to be the most effective starter for the first half. Montero has a collection of five useful pitches, but it’s been an improved change-up — giving him a way to get lefties out — that’s sparked the breakout season. Montero rarely walks anyone so he’s an easy watch, and his Statcast profile mostly justifies that 3.39 ERA. He’s in the Circle of Trust.
Jake Bennett, SP, Red Sox: The seasonal stats push for a pickup, but things get more impressive if you consider who he’s shutting down. Bennett threw bagels at Coors Field along with nine strikeouts, then backed it up with 6.1 tidy innings against the Yankees in his last start (just one run allowed). The tall lefty has a rotation spot for the extended future, and even when opponents make contact against Bennett, Boston’s outstanding defensive outfield can run down a lot of mistakes. Dial him up at the Angels this week.
Downgrade
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox: Boston just had its best moment of the year, a weekend sweep of the Yankees. But Duran’s game continues to be asleep — he’s at .161/.202/.280 for the past month, with 33 strikeouts against five walks. He’s often rested against left-handed pitching. The Red Sox missed the ideal window to trade Duran out of their glutted outfield, and now it’s arguable that Duran shouldn’t be playing at all.
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José Soriano, SP, Angels: No one took the fast start at face value, but the correction has come hard in June: 5.32 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 17 walks against 24 strikeouts. His 3.32 ERA belies a 4.20 FIP, and a 1.316 WHIP isn’t an asset in any league. His career ratios (3.76/1.320) are the way to bet going forward.
Holding Steady
Jazz Chisholm, 2B, Yankees: Normally a .181 run over 30 days would be cause for alarm, but Chisholm’s still been a fantasy asset, providing six homers (check that pull-happy rate) and 11 steals over that period. His under-the-hood profile is a meandering story, too — a good walk rate, an acceptable chase rate and yet there’s all those strikeouts and a modest hard-hit profile. At the end of the day, category juice carries the day; I couldn’t move Chisholm down in the ranks. But that .223 average could stick all season.
Updated rest-of-season top-250 rankings (as of June 29)
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