2026 World Cup Group D: USMNT loss to Türkiye doesn’t alter 1st-place finish, Australia and Paraguay draw to both advance

The United States men’s national team has officially won Group D at the World Cup, even though they ended the group on a brutal low note.

Technically, the USMNT didn’t need anything heading into Thursday’s game against Türkiye: The team had already locked up Group D as a group winner, putting themselves onto a favorable path in the knockout. But the last-minute 3-2 loss is a bit of a gut punch to the U.S.’s confidence, which had been sky-high ahead of the matchup.

Türkiye, who was scoreless through the two games despite a whopping 62 shots, finally clicked against a second-string U.S. lineup, scoring three goals — including a game-winner in the eighth minute of stoppage time.

Though the USMNT had gotten an early lead behind Auston Trusty’s third-minute strike, and had equalized early in the second half off a great shot from Sebastian Berhalter, Türkiye was the one who ended with the win, even as they were already mathematically eliminated.

Australia and Paraguay, meanwhile, were both playing without much incentive to win. With Türkiye already out, and a win under both of their belts, both teams were already going to advance. The resulting 0-0 draw, with 20 total shots on goal, was evidence of that.

So despite a final round of games, Group D ends exactly the way it started on Thursday: with the U.S. on top, followed by Australia and Paraguay, and Türkiye heading home early.

Group D table, results

Friday, June 12: United States 4, Paraguay 1
Saturday, June 13: Australia 2, Türkiye 0
Friday, June 19: United States 2, Australia 0
Friday, June 19: Türkiye 0, Paraguay 1
Thursday, June 25: Türkiye 3, United States 2
Thursday, June 25: Paraguay 0, Australia 0

Who will group winner, runner-up play in knockout round?

Group D winner: The United States
Matchup: USMNT vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Date: Wednesday, July 1
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Group D runner-up: Australia
Matchup: Australia vs. Group G runner-up (likely Iran or Belgium)
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Date: Friday, July 3
Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas

Will third-place team make knockout round?

After ending with four points, Paraguay should advance to the next round. However, the team’s two goals scored mean it will be lower-ranked than the other third-place finishers who picked up four points.

Can this group produce a World Cup winner?

Heading into this summer, Group D was one of the most evenly-matched in the tournament — as in, closely ranked, but not necessarily highly-ranked. Up until Thursday, the USMNT had been far exceeding expectations, and looked incredibly dominant after locking up the group against Australia last week. The loss to Türkiye puts some doubt on that, largely because it put two of the team’s biggest weaknesses — depth and defense — on full display. To be fair, this was not the USMNT’s typical starting lineup (Mauricio Pochettino made nine changes from last week’s starters against Australia), but U.S. fans are likely not as confident about a deep run as they were a week ago, or even a day ago.

Australia and Paraguay, meanwhile, would need a miracle to make a long run, let alone win it all. Both teams are talented enough to squeeze out a win, but neither has been playing well enough to go deep.