You know how hard it is to win eight games in a college football season?
Clemson didn’t do it last year. Neither did Florida State, North Carolina, or Virginia Tech.
Penn State didn’t win eight games. Nebraska would do anything to get to eight wins again. Florida was four wins shy of that, Auburn wasn’t close, and … you get the idea.
NC State wins eight games, and all anyone cares about is why it can’t do more.
NC State Will Keep Winning, and Now It Needs To Win the Right Games
© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
No, I won’t go through it all again, but do you know how hard it is to come up with seven wins or more ten times in 12 seasons?
Dave Doeren keeps putting out solid, winning teams, but he and the Wolfpack can’t catch a break – or create the right ones.
Seriously? Duke beat Virginia for the ACC title? If that can happen, eventually, when will it finally be NC State’s turn?
It has the quarterback, the schedule, and the track record to get close. Keep on putting a good lure in the water, and eventually something big will bite.
– 2026 NC State Schedule Analysis
NC State Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Dave Doeren (14th year at NC State, 95-70; 16th year overall: 118-74)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Win the ACC Championship/A second losing season in three years
- Key Player: CJ Bailey, QB Jr.
- 2025 Record: 8-5
- Biggest Question: Can the Wolfpack defense carry its share of the workload and generate more big plays?
NC State Key 2025 Stats
- Fumbles: Opponents 10 (lost 7), NC State 10 (lost 3)
- Punt Return Average: Opponents 13.4 yards, NC State 4.21 yards
- Penalties: Opponents 91 for 841 yards, NC State 72 for 699 yards
Offense
Life is easier when you complete a lot of passes and score a bunch of points.
The NC State offense didn’t go anywhere against the elite, but it managed to keep up the pace with just about everyone else, and it should all keep on going as several new skill players can be great right away. Fortunately …
What’s Working
CJ Bailey is back. The star young quarterback was terrific in his first two years, completing 67% of his throws for over 5,500 yards and 42 touchdowns with just 19 picks.
The 6-6, 213-pounder is slippery smooth on the move, added some bulk, and has the upside to be among the nation’s best passers.
The offensive line has the parts to be stronger. It was better for the running game than the stats might suggest, but it could stand to do more to keep Bailey from getting popped.
The right side is set with Teague Anderson back at tackle and Spike Sowells a good young guard.
Left tackle has a big hole, but getting Jimarion McCrimon from East Carolina helps. Texas transfer Daniel Cruz was a good get to take over the center gig.
Take the pressure off Bailey. The offense is all about Bailey, but the team does better when the ground game works. Last year’s Pack were 5-0 when running for 185 yards or more, and 8-2 when coming up with more than 60 yards.
What Needs Work
Hollywood Smothers is good. The star running back ran for almost 1,000 yards and caught 37 passes as a great playmaker who took over at times.
He’s off trying to make the Texas running game go, and now it’s up to No. 2 back Jayden Scott – he ran for 581 yards and four scores – to do more, and North Carolina’s Davion Gause is a good-sized option for the rotation.
The offense could use some strong receivers, too. Star tight end Justin Joly is now a Denver Bronco, and Terrell Anderson (USC), Noah Rogers (Alabama), and Wesley Grimes are also done. Throw in Smothers, and the top five pass catchers are gone.
Teddy Hoffman and Keenan Jackson combined for 53 grabs and five scores, and in comes a whole slew of transfers – starting with volume-catch playmaker Victor Snow from Buffalo – to help fill the gaps.
The offense wasn’t even close against the two great teams on the slate. It was fine in the win over Virginia and great in the loss to Duke, but when it was time to show just how good the attack could be, things went very, very wrong.
The Wolfpack combined for 376 yards and 14 points in blowout losses to Notre Dame and Miami.
Player to Watch
Victor Snow, WR Sr.
After one year in Nevada, the 5-8, 170-pound guy named Snow unironically went to Buffalo.
It took a year, and then he went off with 117 catches for 1,466 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He’ll be a key midrange target for Bailey in the slot.
Defense
Defensive coordinator DJ Elliot needs a bit more out of his bunch.
Things weren’t quite as bad as the overall stats in his first year, but the Wolfpack finished 111th in the nation in total defense, were awful at getting off the field easily, and got torched through the air.
It’s not the worst thing in the world that some big changes are coming, starting with …
What’s Working
The linebacking corps. Caden Fordham and his 143 tackles are gone to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the rest of the group needed an upgrade. Jackson Vick is still around after making 45 tackles in the rotation, and here come the transfers.
Miami’s Raul Aguirre was a great get – “Popo” is a big thumper with the range to be a volume tackler.
Penn State’s DaKaari Nelson will try to fill Fordham’s shoes on the weakside, and Harvey Dyson is a hybrid edge rusher from Tulane who came up with seven sacks last season.
Interior bulk isn’t an issue. The Wolfpack have to use their size a little more, but they have the beef.
It starts with 312-pound Josiah Victor on the nose, 280-pound Isaiah Shirley returning after being part of the rotation last year, and 6-3, 336-pound Marshall transfer Katron Evans adding even more size.
The secondary returns experienced. King Mack comes in from Penn State for one safety spot after making 58 tackles with three broken up passes last season. He’ll be terrific, former Georgia Bulldog Ondre Evans should start at one corner.
Starting veterans are all back at the other three spots, led by Asaad Brown, who was third on the team with 64 tackles,
What Needs Work
Start with the pass rush. Most of the other problems stemmed from the inability to get to the quarterback. NC State was 107th in the nation with just 20 sacks, and 17.5 of those aren’t around. Not applying any pressure went a long way to being an issue with …
Third down stops. This was the big problem – the Wolfpack defense couldn’t get off the field.
Third in the nation in third down stops in 2023, NC State dropped to 55th in 2024. Last year? 128th in the nation, allowing teams to convert 46% of their chances.
The defense got away with it, for the most part, but it was a big difference in the tough 23-21 loss to Virginia Tech.
The secondary has to be far better. The Wolfpack got ripped apart by most quarterbacks who could throw a forward pass, going 6-1 when allowing fewer than 260 yards, and got hit for over 400 by Pitt and Georgia Tech in losses.
They finished 132nd in the country, allowing 273 yards per game, but to be fair, three of the four teams ranked lower were all in the ACC, including Duke.
Player to Watch
Chase Bond, EDGE Soph.
The 6-4, 265-pounder has the right combination of size, quickness, and upside to be the exact type of edge rusher to build around. In his limited work last year, he cranked out 5.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Now he gets a much bigger role.
Keys to the Season
- Give CJ Bailey as much time as humanly possible to work.
- Find a pass rush and be far more productive on third downs.
- Keep running the ball with a good rotation of backs.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Jayden Scott, RB Soph.
The pass rushers might be more important overall – there are far more concerns on the defensive side – but replacing Hollywood Smothers and all he brought is a key to the season.
Scott is a 225-pound back built to handle the workload, even if he’s not as dynamic as Smothers.
When needed, he came up huge with a 196-yard day on 24 carries in the win over Georgia Tech, and ran for 96 yards in the bowl win over Memphis.
Biggest Concern
The pass rush.
It’s not just that the pressure wasn’t there throughout the season in bulk numbers. It’s that the sacks disappeared at key times.
The Wolfpack managed to survive Virginia without anything happening in the backfield, but it was a huge problem in the loss to Pitt.
Get to over 30 sacks on the season – there were just 20 last year – and things will be different on defense.
Biggest Game
at Virginia, August 29
This was originally going to be a fun date in Brazil to open up the season in Week 0, but that fell through. Now it’s just a regular old ACC road date for the Wolfpack.
It’s about as much of a tone-setting moment as it gets, going against a team that should’ve won the ACC Championship last season.
The Wolfpack have won the last four in the series, with the last loss in 2012. They haven’t lost in Charlottesville since 2006.
Transfer Portal
The whole goal was to keep quarterback CJ Bailey around, and the Wolfpack did that.
However, they lost several top-shelf players who can’t be replaced – it’s not too much of a head-hanger to lose guys to Texas, Alabama, and USC, though.
So a few of the elite of the elite players are gone, but they cranked it up with a bunch of good gets, especially at receiver.
Best Signing
Raul Aguirre Jr., LB (Miami)
It was hard to get a ton of time in the Miami defensive rotation, but Aguirre managed 70 tackles over the last two seasons.
Now he comes in to take over the middle of the NC State linebacking corps, where he should be a 100-tackle playmaker.
Biggest Loss
Jacarrius Peak, OT (South Carolina)
This stings.
NC State got a nice replacement in Jimarion McCrimon from East Carolina, but Peak has All-America talent – even if he doesn’t quite have elite NFL tools. He’ll be a star for the South Carolina line.
Other Names to Know
- Ondre Evans, CB (Georgia)
- Joshisa Trader, WR (Miami)
- Hunter Provience, TE (Montana State)
CFN Season Prediction
NC State will go to another bowl game, have another good season, and will be good enough to beat just about anyone on the slate. The problem is an ACC that’s a rock from top to bottom.
This year’s Wolfpack team still has a slew of glitches to fix.
They need the lines to be stronger, the offense has to be good against the stronger teams, and the defense has to shore things up against the good passing attacks.
CFN Prediction: 8-4
Can they get at least one of the road games at Virginia and Vanderbilt?
After that, things ease up in a huge way. There’s only one away game between September 19 and Thanksgiving weekend, and it’s at Stanford.
The Pack miss Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU, and Clemson, and missing Virginia Tech this year is a big deal.
So yeah, it’ll be another NC State season under Dave Doeren with somewhere between seven to nine wins.
Related: 26 for 2026: 26 Key Questions for the ACC Football Season
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