It was probably a solid decade ago when I realized my fantasy football seasons tended to have the same shape, year after year.
The first quarter would go by and I’d be worried the year could be a waste. Performance was less than expected, draft results so-so. It’s a scary place to be.
Then the second quarter would play out and I’d find most of my teams in contention, happily. This pattern needed to repeat a few times before I realized it probably wasn’t a fluke — the key was reacting to a new season and figuring it out, hopefully, a beat quicker than the market did.
I give you this opener because my 2026 fantasy baseball season has felt like a fantasy football season. At the first quarter checkpoint, I was worried it was going to be a long, messy, underachieving year. But now that we’re closing in on the halfway point, I find most of my teams are in contention, above average, ready to chase a podium spot. More importantly, I’m having fun.
Last week, I talked about the misses and mistakes of my fantasy baseball year. Here, we’ll focus on some of the things that have gone right, and some of the lessons to scribble down in ink.
Kyle Schwarber crushing in the second round
We talked up Schwarber as the perfect second-round pick, and it’s played out as such, as he’s on pace for a 60-homer season and hitting for his best average in five years. He’s also going to strike out more than 200 times, but no one cares that much about that when you pile up homers and walks like Schwarber does.
Schwarber coming through is especially important in 2026, because the first round has been so messy — more than half of the consensus first-round picks have disappointed, partly due to underperformance and injuries.
Eschewing big-name, new-city guys has been right again
This is a long-held tenant of fantasy legends Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, the idea that you don’t chase after a name player the first year he settles into a big contract with a new team. If you held to this maxim this year, you were able to avoid Kyle Tucker, Edwin Díaz, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez, who have all come in significantly under projection.
Bullpen on a budget usually make sense
Let’s be fair about this concept, any strategy works if you pick the right players. But I think it’s important to understand that so many bullpens will turn over in a fresh season, and we can often find saves for low acquisition costs. Generally it’s my aim to be passive on saves at the draft and aggressive on them in-season, and we’re making that work again.
Louis Varland has been the hero closer of the year, with a shocking breakout (three wins, 16 saves, 0.84 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) that mirrors the wipeout year Mason Miller is having in San Diego. A few of my late-round picks hit with closer spec plays: Riley O’Brien, Paul Sewald, Seranthony Domínguez. Alex Lange seems to be taking over in Kansas City. I don’t care so much about where my bullpen starts, I care about where it ultimately settles in.
Sometimes spring training can offer signal
If you were paying attention to walks and strikeouts in March, you might have landed on Kyle Harrison and Emerson Hancock as late-round targets. Kevin McGonigle was already a praised prospect, but his sterling BB/K rate in Florida showed how MLB-ready he actually was. I didn’t get as many McGonigle shares as I wanted in March, but I aggressively traded for him early in the season. So far, so good.
Post-hype sleepers for the win
Here’s where I have to sheepishly admit I don’t have any shares of Jordan Walker, the most important fantasy baseball hitter value this year. But post-hype thinking got me cheap draft shares of Miguel Vargas, and it had me open minded to Mike Soroka early in the season and Zack Gelof about a month ago. Harrison and Hancock can be put in this box, too.
Career arcs might help you get lucky
Otto Lopez was a mid-round target of mine for the expected category juice — he’s a consistent source of speed and power. I liked the multi-position eligibility, too. But I had no way of knowing his technical tweaks at the plate would turn last year’s .246 average into this year’s .336 hit parade. I can’t take credit for this draft win, but I can enjoy it.
But we also have to note that Lopez is in his age-27 season, a sweet spot for career years. Perhaps that’s also the explanation for Detroit C Dillon Dingler, who’s gone from a low-price draft target to a legitimate star in his age-27 campaign. The Tigers are ready to have a midseason yard sale, but McGonigle and Dingler aren’t going anywhere.
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