Islamabad’s Fragile Bargain: Why Tehran and Washington Need the Truce to Hold

When U.S. and Iranian negotiators left Switzerland on June 22, the important result was not a final peace treaty. Mediators said the two sides had made “encouraging progress” toward a 60-day roadmap, established political oversight, and begun further technical talks. That matters. But it does not erase the fact that the path from a ceasefire to a durable settlement remains crowded with unresolved questions: Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the future of shipping through Hormuz, and the fighting in Lebanon. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding should therefore not be read as a clean victory for either Tehran or Washington, much less as proof that both have already won. It is better understood as a provisional mutual exit from a war […]