STARKVILLE — Mississippi State baseball will need to defeat a team it beat 26-0 earlier in the season, then outlast two other teams that are playing well to win the Starkville Regional in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bulldogs (40-17) are the No. 14 national seed, hosting a regional at Dudy Noble Field for the first time since 2021. They are matched up with No. 4 Lipscomb (29-24) to begin the regional on May 29 (1 p.m., ESPN+).
No. 2 Cincinnati (37-20) and No. 3 Louisiana (39-23) will play at 6 p.m. (ESPN+).
The regional is paired with the Athens Regional, hosted by SEC champions Georgia. The winners of the Starkville and Athens regionals will meet in a best-of-three super regional.
Here’s what to know about MSU’s opponents and a prediction for who wins the Starkville Regional.
Mississippi State swept Lipscomb with 26-0 win
The Bulldogs played Lipscomb earlier this season and swept the series at Dudy Noble Field March 5-7. The final game was a 26-0 win, the program’s largest margin of victory since 1999 and tied for the fourth-largest in MSU history.
But the entire series wasn’t an easy breeze. Lipscomb’s starting pitcher Alexander Llinas (6-4, 5.40 ERA) gave Mississippi State trouble in Game 1. The Bisons led 1-0 in the sixth inning until Mississippi State pulled ahead for an 8-3 win.
“I think you can take a little bit from playing somebody in a series,” MSU coach Brian O’Connor said. “Now, that was early on. I’m sure they’re a different ball club. We’ve got some different things as well. I just recall that their No. 1 starter pitched really good against us. He had a nice sinker.”
Lipscomb won the Atlantic Sun Tournament as the No. 2 seed on a walk-off walk.
Cincinnati has one of Big 12’s best pitching staffs
Cincinnati won six straight Big 12 series to end the regular season but lost to Arizona State in its only Big 12 Tournament game.
The Bearcats have a 4.94 ERA, the third best in the Big 12. Starting pitcher Nathan Taylor (6-3, 3.86 ERA) was an All-Big 12 first-team selection.
Cincinnati led the Big 12 with 115 stolen bases. The Bearcats were fifth in the Big 12 in batting average (.300) and home runs (84). Freshman designated hitter/catcher Enzo Ifelise won Big 12 Freshman of the Year with a .371 batting average, nine home runs, 44 RBIs and 34 runs.
Louisiana led by 2 starting pitchers
Louisiana has a 4.96 team ERA, the fourth best in the Sun Belt. They are led by All-Sun Belt second-team starters Cody Brasch (6-2, 2.04 ERA) and Andrew Herrmann (7-5, 4.43 ERA). Brasch, a right-hander, has allowed only two earned runs in his last 25⅓ innings.
Louisiana only has two players, Colt Brown and Lee Amedee, who are batting over .300. The Ragin’ Cajuns have 111 stolen bases and had the second-best fielding percentage (.980) in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana won four consecutive series to end the regular season and made the Sun Belt championship game before losing to Southern Miss. That included going 4-1 against Coastal Carolina, an NCAA Tournament team, in eight days.
Mississippi State baseball prediction for Starkville Regional
Mississippi State will win the regional, defeating Cincinnati in the final.
The Bulldogs have struggled to beat elite teams. They are 3-12 against teams in the top 15 in RPI. But none of the teams in the regional are in the top 20 in RPI. Cincinnati is No. 22, Louisiana is No. 33 and Lipscomb is No. 155.
Having Ryan McPherson at full or near-full strength should be a big boost for MSU’s pitching. McPherson threw five shutout innings in a team scrimmage on May 23, according to O’Connor.
Starkville Regional schedule in 2026 NCAA baseball tournament
All games at Dudy Noble Field; double elimination format; game times in Central
Friday, May 29
- Game 1: Mississippi State vs. Lipscomb, 1 p.m. on ESPN+
- Game 2: Cincinnati vs. Louisiana, 6 p.m. on ESPN+
Saturday, May 30
- Game 3: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, 3 p.m., TBA
- Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 8 p.m., TBA
Sunday, May 31
- Game 5: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 loser, 2 p.m., TBA
- Game 6: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 7 p.m., TBA
Monday, June 1
- Game 7 (if necessary): TBA
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State baseball prediction for NCAA Tournament regional
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