Never tell Caleb Williams the odds when it comes to the throws he can or can’t make. The Chicago Bears quarterback diced up the Cleveland Browns on Sunday during a decisive 31-3 win on the lakefront, going 17 of 28 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Williams made plenty of big throws, whether they were down the middle to wide receiver Luther Burden or up the sideline to tight end Colston Loveland. But one play stood out from all the rest that had people talking, which was the touchdown strike to wide receiver DJ Moore.
Williams made one of the best plays of his young career when he rolled right towards the sideline on a first down to try and make a play. Running out of real estate, Williams fired a rocket across his body towards the back of the end zone in double coverage, where Moore easily came down with the ball in the blink of an eye. The throw sailed just above safety Grant Delpit’s hands to Moore for the touchdown.
The play was impressive and stood out league-wide during a busy NFL Sunday, with some believing Williams was initially trying to throw the ball away. Now we know just how crazy the play actually was. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, that touchdown pass from Williams to Moore has a completion probability of just 16.1%. It’s the most improbable completion by a Bears quarterback since the 2021 season.
Caleb Williams’ 22-yard TD pass to DJ Moore had a completion probability of 16.1%, the most improbable completion by a @ChicagoBears QB over the last five seasons (since 2021).
🔸 QB Speed: 11.62 mph
🔸 Target Separation: 0.7 yards#CLEvsCHI | #DaBearspic.twitter.com/ScSnMSigJ3— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 14, 2025
Williams has made a habit out of completing absurd throws that should not have a chance of being caught. It seems to happen at least once a week, but this one stood out among the rest. And the Bears quarterback isn’t deterred by the risky nature of the decision or playing it safe. He’s confident in his ability with the ball in his hands. “I can make any throw,” Williams said defiantly when asked if a play like that is considered ill-advised in the postgame press conference.
To Moore’s credit, he didn’t waver and was able to focus on bringing the ball in amidst all of the traffic around him. “He thought he threw it too high, and I just made a play on it,” Moore said to ESPN 1000’s Jason McKie after the game. The receiver finished the game with four catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns.
Knowing how Williams likes to play, there may be a throw that gets completed with an even lower percentage than the one we saw on Sunday. But the quarterback has all the belief in the world in not only his playmaking ability but also his teammates as well.
This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Bears Caleb Williams’ TD pass to DJ Moore was historically improbable
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