The 2026 World Cup is down to its last 16 teams after an action packed first knockout round saw some big hitters sent home.
Germany succumbed to the biggest shock of the round of 32 as they lost on penalties to Paraguay, sparking a managerial shake-up that could see Jurgen Klopp succeed Julian Nagelsmann after his resignation. They were joined on the plane home by fellow giants the Netherlands, whose wait to win a first World Cup goes on after their defeat to Morocco.
But at the other end of the scale, free-scoring France continued to prove why they are the team to beat with Spain and holders Argentina also impressing. Portugal, Brazil and England, meanwhile, endured close shaves with a shock exit of their own.
There may have been questions surrounding the dilution of quality in a 48-team World Cup, but after whittling down to our best 16, that is definitely no longer a factor.
Here’s how every team in the last-16 stacks up in The Independent’s World Cup 2026 power rankings:
Rankings are based on a combination of performance and potential at the 2026 World Cup, as well as how teams are faring relative to pre-tournament expectations:
1. France 🇫🇷 ↔️
France are the team to beat at this World Cup. While their closest challengers on the other side of the bracket have, so far, been carried by one exceptional superstar, Didier Deschamps has put together a so far untouchable unit powered by its unleashed attacking ranks. They hit 10 goals in the group stage and added three more to no reply against Sweden to progress to the last 16, with Kylian Mbappe adding another brace to take charge of the golden boot race. His all-time World Cup tally in now 18 – sorry Miroslav Klose, your record has been smashed twice this tournament.
2. Spain 🇪🇸 ⬆️
Spain came into this tournament as the favourites but didn’t exactly show that right from the outset, unlike their two main challengers either side of them in these rankings. That frustrating opening 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in Group H delivered one of the early shocks of the World Cup, though with Lamine Yamal back fit in the side they managed build up some steam – first with the thrashing of Saudi Arabia (as they were expected to do) before sealing top spot in the group by overcoming Uruguay in a fiery clash. It was in their first knockouts clash, however, where Spain really looked like potential winners.
La Roja brushed Austria aside in a 3-0 win, with Mikel Oyarzabal (the most international footballer of all time) snatching two to seal their place in the last-16. It was simple work in Los Angeles – and while Portugal will probably pose a tougher challenge, the European champions will go into that match as rightful favourites.
2. Argentina 🇦🇷 ⬇️
It is still very much the Lionel Messi show when it comes to Argentina – though for the first time this tournament, the World Cup top scorer has emerged from a game as an afterthought. The holders were pushed to their absolute limit by surprise package Cape Verde, forced to extra time as first Messi and then Lisandro Martinez saw their goals cancelled out. The second equaliser, from Sidny Cabral, will be up there for goal of the tournament. Argentina managed to just about survive, a 111th-minute own goal proving the distance and preventing penalties, but it was anything but the walkover we might have expected from a team 62 places higher in the world rankings than their opponents. Cape Verde, you have won our hearts forever – and also knocked Argentina down a place in our power rankings.
4. Portugal 🇵🇹 ⬆️
Portugal did not have the best group stage. Their only win came in their 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan, which can be caveated by the level of opposition – because boy, they were poor. Roberto Martinez’s side therefore had something to prove in the last-32, up against a Croatia side who have reached the final and semi-final in the last two editions.
Akin to their group campaign, the way Portugal got through against Croatia was not convincing. They had to come from behind, equalising with a Cristiano Ronaldo penalty before Goncalo Ramos’ stoppage-time header, and then have Snicko come to their rescue to rule out a last-gasp Croatia leveller for offside. But in the end, they beat one of the competition’s biggest bogey teams. That alone doesn’t get them a two-place bump in our rankings heading into the last-16, though – they have the stumbles of those below them to thank for that.
5. Brazil 🇧🇷 ↔️
Things had begun to click for Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti after their sluggish start against Morocco in New York, but they endured a scare in the round of 32. Japan posed a tricky test and went into half-time ahead, with Kaishu Sano’s opener giving the Samurai Blue of ending their own 60 years of hurt without a win in a knockouts match. But after the phenom of Casemiro’s head equalised for the Selecao, Gabriel Martinelli came up with the goods in stoppage time to send them through by the skin of their teeth. It was a lucky escape for Brazil, who haven’t yet shown they are on the same level of the top, top contenders at this World Cup. They avoided a bruising defeat to a resilient Japan side – but even if they had lost, it wouldn’t have been humiliating. Speaking of near-misses with humiliations…
6. England 🏴 ⬇️
Blimey, lads. England didn’t exactly set the world ablaze since stoking expectation in their impressive opening win against Croatia, but they nearly suffered another “Iceland moment” in their knockouts clash with DR Congo.
Thomas Tuchel’s side fell behind early to the African nation and for 68 minutes were on course to go out in the most humiliating fashion. That was until captain fantastic Harry Kane came to their rescue, scoring twice in the final quarter-hour to save his country’s skin. Regardless of the win, another drab performance means that many have England to go out to co-hosts Mexico at the Estadio Azteca on Sunday.
7. Morocco 🇲🇦 ⬆️
The Afcon (sort of) champions impressed in the group stage, especially in their opening draw against Brazil where they were the better side, but were punished for not scoring big against Scotland or Haiti as they ran out second in Group C, setting up a match with big hitters Netherlands in the round of 32’s most-stacked tie.
Cue a match filled with last drama and one of the most bewildering penalty shootouts in World Cup history, which saw five out of 10 spot-kicks missed – with Morocco the victors. Inflicting one of the two biggest eliminations of the last-32, Morocco are out to prove their 2022 semi-final run was no fluke.
8. Mexico 🇲🇽 ⬆️
Mexico have hardly put a foot wrong in their home World Cup so far. After recording three wins on the trot to top their group, they dispatched fellow “dark horses” Ecuador in dominant fashion. They now await the visit of England at the Azteca in the last-16 – and with altitude advantage, it’s no secret they’re being favoured.
9. Norway 🇳🇴 ⬆️
Norway hadn’t been at a World Cup in 28 years before making their return to the global stage in North America – they now look like they’re here to stay. They were powered by Erling Haaland’s goals in the group and that didn’t change in the last-32, with his 86th-minute winner seeing off Ivory Coast. Brazil await them in the round of 16, who haven’t exactly looked their imperious selves this year. Could an upset be on the cards?
10. USA 🇺🇸 ⬆️
The Americans keep on trucking! After their perfect group stage was scuppered on matchday three by already-eliminated Turkey, Mauricio Pochettino’s side ensured their home World Cup adventure did not end at the first knockouts hurdle as they comfortably beat Bosnia and Herzegovina. Folarin Balogun scored yet again, taking his tally to three for the tournament – but a controversial red card (which, even more controversially, can’t be overturned) means they will be without their marksman for their last-16 tie with Belgium. A daunting matchup… well, a bit less daunting than a few years ago.
Can they survive another round? Either way, it’s been a World Cup to remember for the Americans.
11. Belgium 🇧🇪 ⬆️
Belgium aren’t what they used to be, we all know that. Their golden generation has passed them by and suddenly one of the most feared teams of the 2010s don’t look as much of a threat. Even still, they produced the most dramatic win of this World Cup so far.
Senegal looked like they were cruising to a win, 2-0 up on the Belgians, as the clock ticked over to 86 minutes. Three minutes and two Belgium goals and the Teranga Lions were left stunned, the game heading to extra time. We’d had our fix of late drama for one outing but Belgium didn’t let up, winning a penalty in the 120th minute (Pape Thiaw didn’t order his team off the field, this time), with Youri Tielemans duly converting it to snatch victory for the Red Devils. Pure drama.
They now face co-hosts USA in a match that will probably pit them as the underdogs. But I think we’ve learned our lessons not to write off the Belgium team just yet.
12. Colombia 🇨🇴 ⬇️
Colombia were pretty dominant against Ghana despite a narrow margin of victory in their round of 32 clash, and topped their group while having just about the better of one of the best 0-0s you will ever see against Portugal. Why, then, are they so low in our rankings? There is an eminently winnable encounter with Switzerland to come and then perhaps Argentina, who Colombia pushed all the way in a tense Copa America final in 2024. But this feels a slightly more limited squad – perhaps they will prove us wrong.
13. Switzerland🇨🇭⬆️
The round of 16 has tended to be Switzerland’s World Cup limit in the 21st century, a highly capable side perhaps lacking in the sort of stardust required to make a deeper tournament run. Could it be different this year? There is a lot to like about Murat Yakin’s squad and the encounter with Colombia could sneakily be one of the most fun and fascinating match-ups of the round of 16. Their flag is a big plus, too.
14. Egypt 🇪🇬 ⬆️
The most successful team in African history had never experienced real joy at the World Cup – in three previous appearances, they had never won a game. That pain is now a thing of the past. After making history with their first victory in the group stage against New Zealand, which came after impressively holding Belgium to a draw, Egypt now have a knockouts triumph to their name after beating Australia on penalties. Spare a thought for Mohamed Hany, though, who became the first player since 1966 to score two own goals at the same World Cup after knocking into his own net against the Socceroos.
15. Paraguay 🇵🇾 ⬆️
The architects of the shock of the World Cup so far, and it probably won’t be beaten. Paraguay, who lest we forget were schooled by the USA in their World Cup opener, dumped out four-time winners Germany – and on PENALTIES no less! It doesn’t get more poetic than that (from an English perspective, anyway).
16. Canada 🇨🇦 ⬆️
And so, the wooden spoon of the last-16 power rankings goes to Canada. That should be no slight to the co-hosts – they’ve done incredibly well to get their first ever point, then their first ever group win, and now their first ever knockouts win at a World Cup. But by scraping past South Africa, who didn’t exactly inspire much in the group stage, they can’t stack up too well compared to their fellow 15 remaining teams. Prove me wrong, Jesse Marsch.
❌ Eliminated ❌
Ghana
Cape Verde
Australia
Algeria
Croatia
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Senegal
DR Congo
Ecuador
Sweden
Ivory Coast
Netherlands
Germany
Japan
South Africa
Czech Republic
Qatar
Haiti
Turkey
Curacao
Tunisia
New Zealand
Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Jordan
Panama
Scotland
South Korea
Iran
About the Author
