The World Cup is set to enter new territory. Since 1986, the knockout round has featured 16 teams. But with the expansion of the tournament to 48 countries this year, there are 32 teams still alive after an eventful group stage that eliminated one-third of the field.
The 16 matches in the round of 32 that will pare the remaining teams in half take place starting Sunday, June 28 and run through Friday, July 3. Because there are 12 groups in this year’s tournament, there is an imbalance in how the setup will work. Eight first-place teams face the eight third-place teams that advanced. The remaining four group winners play second-place teams, and the other eight matches feature second-place teams against each other.
It creates some intriguing matches right off the bat and some games that look like mismatches. But in a one-and-done format, anything can happen, especially when one goal can be enough to advance.
So which are the best and worst matchups? We ranked all 16 from top to bottom.
1. Netherlands vs. Morocco
It’s a shame that this match comes so early in the knockouts as it is worthy of being a quarter or semifinal. The bonus for the winner is the next game against either Canada or South Africa in the round of 16 will be an easier engagement. Both teams want to play on the front foot and look to attack when possible. The Dutch have scored 10 goals in the group stage, and the insertion of Brian Brobbey at striker has made the attack more ruthless. Morocco reached the semifinals four years ago in Qatar and many of those pieces remain with assistance from the play of 18-year-old midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi.
2. Portugal vs. Croatia
Another match between two teams that comes way too early in the tournament but is unavoidable after Portugal stumbled in the group stage with draws against DR Congo and Colombia. The lack of goals is concerning and not all the blame lies with Cristiano Ronaldo. However, a solution must be found immediately as Croatia has the pedigree to again send Portugal home without a World Cup. Luka Modric played like a man half his age against Ghana. He’ll look to lift Croatia deep into the tournament after reaching the final in 2018 and finishing third in 2022.
3. Norway vs. Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast has a slew of attacking options with Yan Diomande being joined by Nicholas Pepe and Amad Diallo. It pushed Germany in the group stages and should provide a stern test for Norway, which rested starters for its final group stage match against France after a strong start against Iraq and Senegal. That means Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard should be full of energy and ready for what should be a shootout with goals and drama throughout.
4. Brazil vs. Japan
Brazil is blessed with loads of attacking talent with Vinicius Junior and Marcus Cunha leading the way. Concerns about the midfield could be exploited by the frenetic Japanese pressure that is persists throughout their match. Japan won’t be overawed in the matchup. It beat Brazil in a friendly last fall and has been a tough out in the knockout rounds in the last two World Cups.
5. Belgium vs. Senegal
It was a slow start for the Belgians with just one own goal through two matches. The final match in the group stage against New Zealand saw stalwarts Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard and Romalu Lukaku score, providing some promise entering the knockout round. Unfortunately, Senegal is probably the best third-place team after playing well against France and Norway before thrashing Iraq. With Sadio Mane and Ismaïla Sarr leading the frontline, there should be goals available against a weak Belgium defense. This is a potential surprise result.
6. Mexico vs. Ecuador
A dramatic win against Germany sent Ecuador to the knockout round. The challenge doesn’t get any easier with a road game at Mexico’s famed Estadio Azteca. Still, there’s enough talent to push the hosts. Moises Caicedo will hold things down in the midfield, and Willian Pacho of Paris Saint-Germain and Piero Hincapié of Arsenal are standout defenders. This shapes up to be a close, tight match that could be swayed by one moment. Mexico will try to ride the wave of the home crowd and could use some scoring touch from striker Raul Jimenez.
7. Colombia vs. Ghana
This will be a clash of styles with Colombia playing on the front foot and looking to score early and often with Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez leading the line and Daniel Munoz being an option from his fullback position. An impressive display in a draw against Portugal tells you this team is capable of a deep run. However, Ghana will cause some issues with its defensive structure and ability to play on the counter with Antoine Semeyno. The biggest concern is if the Manchester City winger will have enough support to help put the ball in the net.
8. England vs. DR Congo
England finished first in its group. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a lack of creativity was glaring against low blocks employed by Ghana and Panama. Expect a similar formula to be used by DR Congo, which was able to stymie Portugal in a similar fashion. Thomas Tuchel must find solutions to his problems at right back and discover additional scoring options besides Harry Kane and set pieces to truly be a contender in this World Cup.
9. France vs. Sweden
After a slow start in its first half against Senegal, France has looked like one of the favorites it was projected to be. Kylian Mbappe and strike partner Ousmane Dembele have been firing on all cylinders and should be talented enough to overwhelm Sweden. There will be some threat from Arsenal striker Viktor Gyorkeres and Newcastle winger Anthony Elanga if the French defense isn’t fully focused. But don’t expect this one to be close.
10. Spain vs. Austria
An early bump against Cape Verde raised some eyebrows before two solid performances from Spain against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Nothing has really changed its outlook. Spain is still one of the favorites with Lamine Yamal rounding into full fitness and Rodri anchoring the midfield ahead of a defense that has yet to be scored on this tournament. Austria was seconds from missing the knockouts before a dramatic goal. Its reward is this match, but perhaps the dramatic finish gives them a feeling of playing with house money and will take the pressure off.
11. Germany vs. Paraguay
Germany cruised through its first two matches before an inconsequential stumble to Ecuador in its final match of the group stage that shouldn’t have much impact on this contest. Deniz Undav has been a key player off the bench with three goals. Look for him to play a pivotal role alongside midfielders Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz. Paraguay overcame a slow start against the United States and a red card against Turkey to earn four points and reach this round. But it doesn’t have the quality to compete with one of the tournament’s traditional powers.
12. Switzerland vs. Algeria
The Swiss were another team that had an early bobble before appearing to round into form with a win against Canada to take Group B. Johan Manzambi has been the key player with three goals. Algeria has some strong technical players in Ibrahim Maza and Rayan Ait-Nouri along with veteran scorer Riyad Mahrez. That could be enough to spring an upset if its defense and goalkeeping can avoid miscues.
13. Egypt vs. Australia
The first trip to the knockout round for the Egyptians starts with a manageable clash against Australia. But Mo Salah and Omar Marmouch need to provide more scoring for Egypt to go deeper than reaching the round of 16. What Australia lacks in quality going forward it tries to make up it for with size and physicality. A set piece or a counter opportunity might be the best route to an upset.
14. Argentina vs. Cape Verde
One of the traditional world powers playing against the smallest country to ever reach the knockout rounds. It’s a great storyline. The question is whether the match can equal the intrigue. Lionel Messi should have an opportunity to build toward winning the Golden Boot and spoil a great run by Cape Verde that surprised with its quality and effort to finish second in Group H after three draws.
15. United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Two inspired performances against Paraguay and Australia should be the focus for American fans, rather than the reserve-led loss to Turkey. If the U.S. comes with the same intensity it showed in the opener, there should be no problems. Bosnia and Herzegovina could make things tricky with their mix of experience and youth should it take an early lead. But look for the home team to advance.
16. Canada vs. South Africa
Much has been made about the Canadians being unable to play at home because it finished second in its group. However, the bright side is Jesse Marsch’s team gets to face the easiest opponent in the knockout rounds. The expected return of Alphonso Davies should liven the Canada attack that has been hit or miss through three matches. South Africa managed just one open-play goal in the group stages and will be looking to keep things close and play for a smash and grab.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: World Cup knockout round of 32 matches ranked from best to worst
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