Earthquakes are doing what Ukraine’s missiles couldn’t. Seismologist says they’ll finish Crimean Bridge

A series of earthquakes near Crimea is steadily weakening the Crimean Bridge, a Ukrainian seismologist says. The Russian-built crossing sits on unstable ground with its own fault system, and repeated tremors are causing irreversible damage that could eventually bring it down, Dmytro Hryn of Ukraine’s Subbotin Institute of Geophysics told RBC-Ukraine.

The bridge is Russia’s main land link to occupied Crimea and is a symbol of Russia’s occupation war. 

Hryn’s account points to a second threat Moscow cannot shoot down: the ground beneath the piers. If he is right, the crossing is being undermined by the same geology Russia ignored when it chose where to build.

Bridge sits on unstable ground

Hryn says building in this zone broke safety standards from the start. The strip between the Kerch and Taman peninsulas has very poor soils and its own network of faults, he explains.

“This construction was a political decision,” he adds.

Tremors weaken structure

The damage is not instantaneous but permanent, Hryn says. Each quake adds a cumulative effect that gradually weakens both the bridge and the soil beneath its supports, and the strain building inside the structure cannot be reversed.

“Irreversible processes are underway for this bridge. Ukrainian earthquakes will finish it off, even without our missiles,” he believes.

Strikes already strained crossing

Ukraine has battered the bridge and its approaches for years. The SBU hit it in 2022 and 2023 and again in June 2025, when an underwater blast, the agency said, left the crossing in a critical state. Kyiv’s drones have since worked to sever Crimea’s other supply links, leaving the Kerch Bridge the main route Moscow relies on.

Quakes hit Crimea repeatedly

Crimea has shaken repeatedly this week. Ukraine’s seismic monitoring service registered six quakes on 22 June, the strongest at magnitude 4.5, and more tremors on 24 June.

Hryn says a fault near the peninsula keeps reactivating, and he warns of a serious risk of a major earthquake around 2027, on the scale of one that struck a century ago, destroying 70% of Yalta’s buildings.