Russia has raised its crude oil export target from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, following Ukrainian drone attacks that disrupted refinery operations and freed up more crude for shipment, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Despite the upward revision, export planning remains uncertain due to ongoing strikes and shifting repair schedules, which could cause delays or further adjustments. Loadings from Primorsk, Novorossiisk, and Ust-Luga are now expected to reach about 2 million bpd, up from an initial plan of 1.8 million bpd.
The disruptions stem from attacks on 10 Russian refineries this month, shutting down facilities accounting for at least 17% of national processing capacity, or roughly 1.1 million bpd. Ukraine also targeted the Druzhba pipeline and the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region, further limiting export capacity.
Ust-Luga port is currently operating at half of its 700,000 bpd capacity, with volumes being diverted to Novorossiisk and Primorsk. Vessel availability constraints at the end of August also limit Russia’s ability to increase shipments. Eastern Russian exports remain largely unaffected.
The export revisions come as Moscow seeks to maintain revenues amid Western sanctions and U.S. pressure on key buyers to reduce imports of Russian oil.
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